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The marginal improvement in the index of industrial production was mainly on account of higher power generation and mining sector output, while manufacturing declined.
The central government is likely to further consolidate its fiscal deficit by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.9 per cent in FY24 from 6.4 per cent in FY23, according to a recent report released by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. In the current fiscal year, there is going to be an upside of 0.5 per cent on the receipts side due to higher nominal GDP growth, and higher tax buoyancy because of the formalisation, the report said. The upside to expenditure is mainly going to come from incremental subsidies (0.8 per cent of GDP), in both food and fertilizer, it said. The upcoming pre-election Budget will carry forward the trend of the increased capital expenditure seen in recent years.
Among other things, the agenda is likely to focus on increasing private investment, employment generation and giving relief to the farm sector
'India remains a bright spot amid the global slowdown.'
When the landslide hit, Sruthi's house was washed away, along with its inhabitants. She lost her entire family and some relatives. All she had left for a close confidante was her fiance Jenson. Days after the landslide and the loss of her family, Jenson died in a road accident that also left Sruthi with serious injuries. News of the accident and Sruthi's backdrop as the lone surviving member of a family wiped out in the July landslide, was picked up by the media, and people rushed to help.
IIP down due to poor show by manufacturing, mining and power sectors
Retail inflation declined to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April mainly due to falling prices of vegetables, oils and fats, and came closer to Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, showed government data released Friday. It was for the second month in a row that Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation remained within the RBI's comfort zone of below 6 per cent. The government has tasked the central bank to ensure retail inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.
The manufacturing sector, a key indicator of economic activity, grew 10.6 per cent year-on-year in October.
Unlike the Advance Estimates which missed the impact of demonetisation, CEA's survey is likely to have a better take on Indian economy.
the GDP estimates incorporate new source data and modified compilation techniques
Now that the economy is growing at a higher-than-expected rate, it is time to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation, and the Budget could be a good starting point, argues Rajesh Kumar.
The April-June quarter GDP slipped to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent.
Industrial production re-entered the negative territory by contracting 1.6 per cent in January, mainly on account of the decline in output of capital goods, manufacturing and mining sectors. The output of the manufacturing sector -- which constitutes 77.6 per cent of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) -- shrank by 2 per cent in January, as against a growth of 1.8 per cent during the same month last fiscal, as per data released by the government on Friday. The worst performance was witnessed by the capital goods sector, which recorded a contraction of 9.6 per cent during the month under review, compared to a 4.4 per cent decline a year ago.
Bond markets, global as well as domestic, are likely headed towards hard times over the next three to six months, as higher vegetable prices, rising fuel costs, and improved wages may keep inflation hot, believe analysts, who expect the yields to hit 7.5 per cent in the near-term from the current 7.234 per cent. In this backdrop, they suggest investors can put in money in funds/instruments with residual maturity of 4 to 6 years, while longer-term investors can allocate cautiously to the longer end in the range beyond 7 years.
Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Viral V Acharya further said that the impact of the notes ban would only be temporary and would help in bringing informal sector into the mainstream economy.
India's economic growth slowed to 7 per cent in the three months through June from 7.5 per cent in the previous quarter
Rajan, who has also served as chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said he had no idea what statistics are pointing at currently and "a revamp" was needed "to really figure out what India's true growth rate is".
This kind of growth will turn India into a $8 trillion economy.
In fact, India's investment activity growth is also estimated to touch a 17-year low in FY20. With overall demand not showing signs of revival, investment activity may take longer to recover, economists said.
A recent data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) confirm that both the manufacturing and mining sectors shrunk in 2013-14 with fall in output.
It came on the back of tepid dispatches in the March quarter as consumer sentiment took a knocking, owing to uncertainty ahead of the general election.
India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period, as per the National Statistical Office (NSO) data released on Thursday. India remains the fastest-growing major economy as China's GDP growth in the April-June quarter was 6.3 per cent.
Elevated food price-led inflation could become a sore point for markets, which they seem to be ignoring at current levels, observe analysts. Retail inflation in India - as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) - came in at a three-month high of 6.52 per cent in January 2023, compared with 5.72 per cent in December and 5.88 per cent in November 2022. The inflation print for February, according to Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda, will be critical for the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee.
The most serious recommendations to change the financial year came in the years preceded by deficient rainfall. The Jha committee was formed after droughts in 1979-80 and 1982-83, reports Rishika Pardikar/IndiaSpend.
On one hand, Operation Greens should help to smoothen volatility in the prices of vegetables, whereas the proposal to enhance and extend minimum support prices to augment farmer incomes, may emerge as an inflation risk.
In December, govt had lowered its growth forecast for 2015-16 to 7-7.5%
As against an annual average growth of 10-11 per cent envisaged for the industry during the period, the actual annual average growth stood at 7.2 per cent during the plan period.
The matter came up before Justice Subramonium Prasad who listed it for hearing on October 16.
The prime minister was speaking at an industry meet organised at ONGC Petro Additions Ltd's complex in Gujarat's Dahej.
This is mainly due to GST impact on manufacturing and subdued farm output.
A day after masked goons entered Jawaharlal Nehru University and ran riot, injuring over 36 people with sticks, lathis and hammers, noted economist and professor C P Chandrasekhar resigned from a Narendra Modi government-appointed committee on statistics. The committee was set to hold its first meeting to review India's economic data. In his resignation letter, Professor Chandrasekhar wrote, "I regret to inform you that because of the situation in JNU where I stay, I will be unable to attend tomorrow's meeting." He was also quoted as saying, "The JNU's incident on Sunday has further undermined the faith in the system. It shows that we are now living in a different world and it's hard to work with a government in which you have lost faith."
TCS, Wipro and Infosys dropped by up to 4.47 per cent, dragging down the BSE IT index by 2.96 per cent
The Survey lists some of the challenges that might impede India's progress.
The change in the baseline for IIP and WPI, currently at 2004-05, is expected to bring in more accuracy in mapping the level of economic activity and calculating other numbers like national accounts.
RBI projects GDP growth in FY16 at 7.8 per cent, 30 bps higher than FY15. However, this comes with a downward bias.
Govt has drawn list of PSUs for strategic sale: Jaitley
'We should look at is full year's growth rather than quarter numbers.'
Economic affairs secretary S C Garg said that all macroeconomic parameters are performing well.
Growth of capital goods at 9.6 per cent is inspiring as the investment cycle is expected to rebound in the coming months.
In the manufacturing sector, output is expected to decline by about 70 per cent as only food-processing, and drugs and pharma industries are allowed to operate while other segments, such as engineering and metals, have shut operations.
